At first glance, 2026 looks promising for investors. Stock markets worldwide are up slightly. But if you look beneath the surface, you will see a striking spread. The expanding functionalities of AI have accelerated the market, with investors increasingly distinguishing between winners and losers. With every product announcement from players such as Anthropic or OpenAI (ChatGPT), investor nervousness seems to increase. This is not illogical. AI companies need to roll out their revenue models and are doing so at an increasing pace in more and more sectors. Anthropic now has approximately 300,000 paying business customers.
The battlefield of the ‘AI losers’
Initially, it was call centers that came under fire. Now, the playing field is much broader. Software and business services companies were hit hard. In recent weeks, insurers, asset managers, transport companies, media, and travel organizations have joined them. The common denominator: these are mostly service-driven business models in which information processing and customer interaction are central.
The result is an almost panic-stricken rotation. It feels as if the market is shifting from ‘digital’ to ‘physical’ stocks. Companies are trying to reassure investors that they will not be affected by AI, but will actually benefit from it. The stock price reaction tells a different story. Declines of 30% to 50% in a few months are not uncommon. The return difference between European AI winners and losers over the past twelve months is approximately 95%, and even this year, the difference has already risen to over 30%. We find ourselves in a ‘sell first, ask questions later’ environment.
It is striking that analysts have hardly lowered their earnings expectations for many of these ‘AI losers’. In many cases, the actual disruption is still years away. What is happening, however, is that investors are demanding a higher risk premium on terminal value. And the greater the uncertainty about the revenue model, the higher the risk premium. This translates directly into lower multiples.
The flip side of the coin
Opposite the losers’ camp is a clear group of winners. First and foremost are the companies that make AI possible: chip designers, semiconductor manufacturers, companies with exposure to data centers, and energy companies that supply the necessary electricity — from grid operators to gas turbine manufacturers. In addition, we see strong performance among companies with physical assets that are difficult to replicate: real estate, metals, critical infrastructure, regulated assets with licenses, and protected franchises. Unique luxury products and scarce properties also benefit from their tangible nature in a world where digital services are becoming increasingly replaceable.
In these segments, outperformance is supported by strong positive earnings momentum. AI winners are showing a clear acceleration in EPS growth, which justifies the higher valuations — at least for now. Banks are somewhere in the middle. They may be at risk on the revenue side, but at the same time, they can potentially benefit from AI on the cost side. Efficiency improvements through automation can add value here.
Where are the opportunities?
The question is what it will take to reverse the current narrative. AI is not going away. On the contrary, progress is accelerating. New generations of American Large Language Models are being trained with a multiple of computing power compared to previous models. New releases are just around the corner. Nevertheless, in some cases, the market seems to be overestimating the short term and underestimating the long term. Many applications have yet to prove their value within complex, regulated business environments. Implementation takes time. Integration requires investment. And not every technological possibility automatically translates into structural profit pressure. Meanwhile, in certain sectors, entire divisions are implicitly valued at zero. This suggests a scenario of almost total erosion of the revenue model — an outcome that in many cases is fundamentally unlikely. This creates room for normalization once the dust settles. For active investors, this is where the opportunity lies. Not in blindly chasing AI hype, but in carefully analyzing the fundamental impact:
• How big is the real revenue risk?
• What is the timing of possible disruption?
• What cost advantages can companies realize?
• And how will structural free cash flow change?
In a market where emotion and narrative influence prices, disciplined fundamental analysis can make all the difference. The current dispersion is large, and that is precisely what creates opportunities. AI divides the market into winners and losers. But between those two camps lies a broad gray area. For those willing to look beyond the headlines, that is where the most attractive return potential may lie.
Author: Siegfried Kok
Siegfried Kok is Senior Portfolio Manager at OBAM Investment Management, the Dutch Asset Management Company of the OBAM N.V. fund, one of the oldest mutual fund in Europe founded in 1936.
Siegfried career includes portfolio management responsibilities at Kempen Asset Management, ABN Amro Asset Management and BNP Paribas Asset Management.
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