UK Growth Stalls as Geopolitical Risks Darken the Outlook

NatWest’s economic update examines weakening UK momentum amid rising global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. 

• UK GDP flatlined in January as weakness in services and cautious consumer spending offset pockets of strength in business activity.

• Retail activity was hit by severe weather and fragile consumer confidence, while the housing market remains subdued amid economic uncertainty.

• Globally, slowing U.S. growth and persistent inflation—combined with rising energy prices—are increasing the risk of renewed inflation pressures.

Whether geopolitical tensions ease or intensify could prove decisive for the trajectory of UK growth and inflation in the months ahead.